Climate Change Exchange

Could international climate negotiations stall?

Judging from the low ambition for adequate targets and an equitable deal discussed in Bonn recently, there is a very real danger the negotiations could stall, it seems. And that could be catastrophic for the planet and especially for the millions of poor people living on this planet.

"I’d rather see my country refuse an agreement with low ambition,' says Mithika Mwenda, Coordinator of the Pan African Climate Justice Alliance. 'The political will of rich countries to make up for historical responsibility and safeguard the lives, dignity and development of poor and vulnerable people is just not there. Things have to change dramatically.'

We only have six months to go until Copenhagen and, still, rich countries are in denial of their historical responsibility and they are compromising the climte change negotiations by refusing to agree on strict enough targets to reduce emissions or put forward proposals for technology and financing.

At the recent Bonn talks, Japan announced a mere 8% emissions cuts over 1990 levels by 2020! This is entirely inadequate and is way out of line with keeping temperatures below a dangerous 2 degree C rise.

The existing trust gap between developed countries and developing ones is growing as rich countries drag their feet and demand more actions from developing countries.  Developing countries are rightly worried about efforts to change the terms of the negotiations and shift the burden of dealing with climate change onto them. This is compounded by  developed countries' failure to deliver on previous commitments on both emission reductions or finance.

Unless we get real progress on commitments for Annex 1 countries, the negotiations will stall. And if this happens, the consequences will be dire for the whole planet.

Real and quantified targets should be agreed for providing financing for both adaptation and mitigation efforts in developing countries and for technology transfer. Such action is neither an act of aid or charity, nor a punishment that rich countries face – rather it is compensation for the damage caused by developed countries to the developing countries.

Urgent action isneeded to convince developed countries of their responsibilities towards the planet and to poor people in order that the climate change negotiations in Copenhagen in December produce an adequate, just and equitable agreement.

Is this the way the world ends, not with a bang but with a number?

Eliot Whittington reports from Bonn II

Those following and participating in the UN talks on climate change, currently taking place in Bonn, Germany, must sometimes feel like they are suffering the death of 1,000 numbers. Size of emissions cut, length of commitments, number of commitment period, base year for emissions cuts, size of finance for actions in developing countries... Every dimension of any potential agreement must be described in numbers, and every number is subject to disagreement.

For example, the EU and many other countries have the objective of trying to keep global warming below an average of 2degC, and they claim that stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at 450 parts per million will deliver this.

However widely accepted science actually says that the 450ppm target only has a 50-50 chance of keeping below 2 degrees, and maybe a one in six chance of keeping below 3 degrees.

A negotiator from Micronesia - a nation which consists solely of small pacific islands, which is already suffering from climate change, and for which two degrees is a severe threat, whereas three degrees of warming would be a death sentence - pointed out that accepting this one in six chance is equivalent to putting a bullet in a 6 chambered gun, spinning the chamber and putting it to our collective heads.

But, if you can stay with this, the story the numbers are telling gets worse.

To achieve it's 450 target the EU says rich countries need to deliver a 25 to 40% cut in their carbon emissions based on 1990 levels. This is certainly the least that is required.

The UN secretariat that supports the talks here has been hard at work compiling the pledges that rich countries have made to the talks so far. The good news is that a number of countries have made real pledges to ensure that they emit thousands of tonnes of carbon less in 2020 than they did in 1990. The bad news is that this adds up to somewhere between 16 to 24 per cent less than 1990 levels.

And the countries that have pledged so far are the ones that have been most vocal about the need to act on climate change so it seems unlikely that the remaining countries will step into the breach to make up the gap in ambition.

The talks are off track. Rich countries are not taking the climate crisis seriously enough. And one final number looms over it all: the readout on digital clock set up on the platform in the main plenary hall is counting down the time left to finalize these talks in Copenhagen. 180 days, 21 hours and 57 minutes and 48 seconds... 47 seconds... 46...

 

The clock is ticking in Bonn

One week into the UN negotiations in Bonn for a new climate agreement, very little progress has been achieved.

Mariana Paoli, International Campaigns Officer at Christian Aid reports:

Real political will to create the right deal in Copenhagen is still missing. More than ever, we need public pressure to reach a fair and effective deal in Copenhagen. Christian Aid, together with other Aprodev members have brought the Countdown to Copenhagen campaign to Bonn during the last week.

With less than 200 days to go before a new climate deal is set to be agreed in Copenhagen, the Countdown to Copenhagen campaign is in full swing inside the UN climate talks in Bonn, host to these intersessional talks until the 12th June. Our human clocks have been in action inside and outside UN corridors inviting decision makers and the public to support the Countdown to Copenhagen pledge and to sign postcards to global leaders asking for an effective and fair climate deal.

Countdown to Copenhagen activists have also been engaged in the Climate Day of Action in Bonn that took place on Saturday, 6th June. Despite constant rain, our human clocks went to the Rheinaue Park to take part in an Arial picture and then went on to march to the UN convention building in 500 strong protest.

The Countdown to Copenhagen campaign, an APRODEV inititaive, is taking place in countries around the world. The total number pledges and postcards collected globally will be delivered to representatives of the UN talks in Copenhagen in December.

"Bonn II", as it is known, is an important political moment because it sets the text for the negotiations later in the year and asks for concrete proposals to be placed on the table by developed and developing states.  If there is no progress in Bonn, it spells little hope for Copenhagen and indeed for the need to safeguard the right of poor people to develop free from the threat of climate change. 

Join the Countdown to Copenhagen campaign and take the Copenhagen pledge.  

Little progress at Bonn II

During the first two weeks of June, Christian Aid campaigns and advocacy staff have been teaming up with APRODEV colleagues, volunteers and other networks in the ongoing UNFCCC negotiations for a new climate agreement, this time held in Bonn. Worryingly, they report that very little progress has been so far achieved. How does this bode for Copenhagen in December?

Nelson Muffuh sums up the frustrations at the end of the first week:

The European Union and other industrialized countries are continuing their consistent attempts to dodge taking on board the full extent of their responsibilities for the climate crisis. Instead, they are focusing diligently on passing the burden onto developing countries who are already struggling to tackle the poverty crisis.

Developed  nations continue to refuse to fully consider and adopt ambitious aggregate targets for rich and industrialized countries in addition to robust individual national targets. This is one of the key expected outcomes from this round of the talks, but negotiations have stalled and unless more ambitious numbers are put on the table, this might lead to the failure of discussions around enhanced adaptation and mitigation by and in developing countries.

However, developing countries are categorical in their rejection of any attempts to pass the buck and insist on seeing robust targets and financing numbers from those most responsible and capable to lead in the global effort.

Parties are now going through a tortuous initial reading of the proposed draft amendments and negotiating texts prepared by the chairs of the working groups.